Dementia Rates in US Predicted to Double by 2060

Dementia rates in the U.S. could double by 2060 to a million new cases per year, according to a study published on Monday. "Our study results forecast a dramatic rise in the burden from dementia in the United States over the coming decades, with one in two Americans expected to experience cognitive difficulties after age 55," Dr. Josef Coresh, study senior investigator and epidemiologist, and the founding director of Optimal Aging Institute at NYU Langone, said in a statement. "The pending population boom in dementia cases pose significant challenges for health policymakers, in particular, who must refocus their efforts on strategies to minimize the severity of dementia cases, as well as plans to provide more health care services for those with dementia." The scientists said previous studies had underestimated the risk of Americans getting dementia, because of unreliable documentation of the illness on official documents, insufficient tracking of early-stage dementia and the underreporting of dementia among racial minority groups.

Racial minority groups are disproportionately vulnerable to dementia, this study and previous studies have found. While dementia rates among white Americans are expected to double by 2060, they are expected to triple among Black Americans, the scientists found. The risk is also higher among women—largely because they live longer on average, than men—as well as people with certain versions of the gene APOE4. Between 45 percent and 60 percent of people have versions of the APOE4 gene that could increase the risk of dementia significantly. The gene is thought to be the biggest genetic risk factor in developing late-onset Alzheimer's. In this study, scientists from NYU Langone and Johns Hopkins used data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Neurocognitive Study (ARIC-NCS). Since 1987, this study has closely tracked the blood health and cognitive function of nearly 16,000 participants as they age, including a large cohort of Black Americans. The scientists used data from ARIC-NCS and from the U.S. Census Bureau to model estimates of lifetime dementia risk among the U.S. population. Between 1987 and 2020, more than 3,000 ARIC-NCS participants developed dementia, which the scientists equated to an overall lifetime dementia risk of 42 percent among middle-aged Americans. In men, they said, the risk was 35 percent, whereas women had a 48 percent risk, and anyone who reached age 75 had a more-than 50 percent risk of developing dementia. This translates to an estimated half-million dementia cases diagnosed this year, rising to 1 million new cases in 2060. However, the scientists said these estimates were not inevitable. If policies designed to improve heart, brain and metabolic health were effective, this could slow cognitive decline and reduce the risk of dementia. The scientists have called for more resources to address health inequalities, particularly among Black communities. Improved childhood education and nutrition could help stave off cognitive decline later in life. This study was published in scientific journal Nature Medicine and funded by the National Institutes of Health. Is there a health problem that's worrying you? Do you have a question about whooping cough? Let us know via health@newsweek.com. We can ask experts for advice and your story could be featured in Newsweek.

Reference

Fang, M., Hu, J., Knopman, D. S., Albert, M., Windham, B. G., Walker, K. A., Sharrett, A. R., Gottesman, R. F., Lutsey, P. L., Mosley, T., Selvin, E., Coresh, J. (2025). Lifetime risk and projected burden of dementia, Nature Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-024-03340-9