On Friday NASA closed the bidding process to select a launch vehicle for an upcoming Earth science mission to measure changes in sea level, Sentinel-6B. The mission is expected to launch into low Earth orbit about four years from now, and the space agency is finalizing its choice of a rocket.
Such bidding processes are secretive to protect the competitive interests of the bidders in terms of prices and capabilities. However, realistically, there is no mystery about who will win the Sentinel-6B contract. Like the spacecraft's twin, Sentinel-6A, we can expect this mission to launch on a Falcon 9 rocket sometime in 2026.
This is because, at present, there are no other bidders for NASA's medium and large science missions beyond SpaceX and its fleet of Falcon rockets.
Bid is “withdrawn”
In response to questions about this lack of competition for its science missions, including Sentinel-6B, NASA declined to provide answers to questions from Ars. Rather, spokesperson Leejay Lockhart issued the following statement, "NASA is not able to share the number of bids or waiver request information as they are considered competition sensitive."
However, it seems likely that at least the last three awards under NASA's Launch Services II contract have all seen SpaceX bidding against itself. United Launch Alliance chief executive Tory Bruno confirmed this after NASA's announcement in September 2021 that the GOES-U satellite would launch on a Falcon Heavy rocket. Bruno said his company had "withdrawn" its bid after all of its Atlas V rockets were sold out.
A source confirmed that United Launch Alliance also did not bid on the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch, which NASA announced in July 2022 it had awarded to SpaceX, nor the Sentinel-6B contract, for which bidding closed on September 30.
This lack of competition harkens back to the period from 2005 to 2015, when NASA was largely reliant on United Launch Alliance, and its Delta and Atlas rockets, for getting its science missions into space. SpaceX broke this monopoly when it launched the Jason-3 mission for NASA and NOAA in January 2016. Partly in response to this competition, and partly due to a desire to end its reliance on Russian rocket engines, United Launch Alliance is ending production of both its Atlas and Delta rockets in favor of what it intends to be a more cost-competitive, American-made rocket, Vulcan.
Not much of a fleet
When NASA's science programs or NOAA have a spacecraft they want to launch, they go to NASA's Launch Services Program, which is charged with providing "safe, reliable, cost-effective and on-schedule" launch services. Effectively, the Launch Services Program acts as a broker, matching spacecraft with optimal rockets. The primary method NASA has for this is the "NASA's Launch Services II contract," which is basically a pool of NASA-approved rockets eligible to bid for science missions. Most science launches—with the exception of special deals like the launch of the James Webb Space Telescope on a European rocket—are awarded this way.
In its brochure for the Launch Services Program, NASA advertises a "fleet of launch vehicles" available for science missions. But in reality, this is misleading. Two of the rockets, the Pegasus XL and Minotaur-C vehicles, are only suitable for small payloads, and fly infrequently. Northrop Grumman's Pegasus rocket has flown just one science mission in the last five years for NASA, the 281 kg ICON spacecraft in 2019. Northrop's Minotaur-C rocket has failed on its last two NASA launches, in 2009 and 2011, and almost certainly will never be selected again. The Antares rocket is unavailable for science missions because it relies on Russian engines and will soon be retired.
Another rocket, the medium-lift Atlas V rocket, is already sold out, Bruno confirmed. Aside from the SpaceX vehicles, that leaves two additional rockets: United Launch Alliance's Vulcan rocket and Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket. Both of these are powerful, heavy-lift rockets capable of flying virtually all of NASA's science missions. Although NASA has issued news releases announcing that Vulcan and New Glenn have been on-ramped, these announcements were premature. The problem is that neither of them has had a flight.
For every single mission bid under NASA's Launch Services II contract, there is a requirement for eligible rockets to have a successful launch of the "common vehicle configuration." This means that, for whatever variant of its rocket a company proposes to use, it must have one good flight. United Launch Alliance is finalizing development of the Vulcan rocket, but its first mission is unlikely to occur before the first half of 2023. Blue Origin is nominally targeting a 2023 debut for New Glenn, but this will probably slip into 2024.
The Launch Services Program does have an alternative contracting method—which, delightfully, appears to be named after Darth Vader. The Venture-Class Acquisition of Dedicated Rideshare, or VADR, contract has allowed NASA to procure launches from companies with smaller rockets, including Rocket Lab, Virgin Orbit, Firefly Aerospace, and Astra. These contracts cost far less, usually about $10 million, and are for CubeSats or slightly larger spacecraft willing to accept higher launch risks.
“When I left you, I was but the learner. Now I am the master.”
Next month, an Atlas V rocket will launch the Joint Polar Satellite System-2 into a Sun-synchronous orbit for NOAA. This will be the final science mission launched by the rocket for NASA and NOAA. The Atlas V still has plenty of work to do before retirement later this decade, but its primary focus will be on launching Project Kuiper satellites for Amazon and the Starliner crew vehicle for Boeing.
So after next month, all of NASA's major science missions for the next few years, including the Europa Clipper and Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, among many other missions, will be flying on Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets.
NASA also has some big science missions that will need rockets soon, including a lander for its Mars Sample Return mission (launching in 2028), the Dragonfly mission to Titan (2027), and the NEO Surveyor to look for killer asteroids (2026). The agency has not said whether it will wait to award these missions until such time as competition is available.
Competition from SpaceX has been good for NASA. During the last decade, as SpaceX developed its Falcon 9 rocket and became eligible to compete in NASA's Launch Services II contract, there has been a downward trend in launch costs for NASA's science missions. Officials said there is no evidence that is changing, despite the lack of competition.
