For a rocket named after a negatively charged particle, the Electron launch vehicle has generated a lot of positive news lately.
Rocket Lab's small booster has already tied its record for annual successful launches with six this year, and it recently stepped up its cadence to complete three Electron missions in just five weeks. And these were not just any launches; they were arguably the most consequential missions since Rocket Lab began flying in May 2017.
On June 28, Electron launched the CAPSTONE mission to the Moon, demonstrating that a small rocket could launch a deep space mission and proving out the capability of the company's Photon satellite bus for complex in-space operations. And then, on July 13 and August 4, Electron launched a pair of missions for the US National Reconnaissance Office that showcased the company's "responsive" space capabilities.
In an interview with Ars, Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck said that these missions, and the higher cadence, were possible because of "mature" processes now in place at Rocket Lab and the experience gained over the previous half-decade. He also spoke about why Electron is unlikely to fly much more frequently than it does now.
Driven by market demand
Building the first couple of rockets for any launch business is an all-hands-on-deck effort, with engineers and managers closely following the rocket down the production line. Now, Beck said, Electrons are built by technicians with a set of work instructions. "We invested a tremendous amount in all of the systems and processes to be able to do that," Beck said. "All of our production systems are really mature."
Rocket Lab is now ready whenever its customers are, Beck said. With its existing workforce, the company can build an Electron launch vehicle every 18 days. It has two launch pads and three clean rooms for pre-launch processing, and it holds two rockets at its New Zealand launch site at all times. Because of its vertical integration efforts, more than 80 percent of an Electron is built in-house, leaving its production less vulnerable to supply chain issues. "Because you are a dedicated service, you're offering a premium service such that you go when the customer is ready," Beck said.
Rocket Lab expects to fly 10 to 12 Electrons this year, which in terms of launch totals would make it the second most active Western launch service provider in the world, behind SpaceX. As measured in tonnage to orbit, of course, companies such as United Launch Alliance and Arianespace would rank higher.
Although the company may double its previous record for annual Electron launches, Beck said the company could still fly a lot more often.
"The reality is that we built everything to be able to launch once a week," Beck said. "Everything in the factory is designed to be able to process and push through one rocket a week. So from an infrastructure perspective, we can do that. And from a system's perspective, we can do that. It would just require a larger workforce. But the reality is that it's the market that's the driver. For us, our cadence today is 100 percent driven by market demand."
The demand is less than Rocket Lab—and presumably other small launch vehicle developers—may have anticipated several years ago. In 2018, Beck told Ars he expected Electron to launch 50 times per year. Rocket Lab has since delivered on its promise to develop a reliable, relatively low-cost vehicle that it can fly when needed. But the satellites are not stacking up, waiting for a rocket.
This helps explain why Beck is investing heavily in the development of the Neutron vehicle, a successor to Electron that is capable of delivering 8 metric tons to low Earth orbit with a fully reusable first stage. That size is where the market, driven by megaconstellations, has moved toward.
When Neutron comes online, Electron will continue to fly. It serves its market well, even though it is a fairly limited market.
"Small, dedicated launches are a niche market," Beck said. "When you need it, you need it. I think a lot of people forget that, prior to Electron, your options were a Minotaur at like $40 to $50 million. Electron did to the Minotaur market what the Falcon 9 did to the Atlas V market. But still, it's a niche part of the market."
Pushing reuse
Although Rocket Lab can build an Electron every 18 days, exceeding the current demand for the vehicle, Beck said the economics of first-stage reuse still make sense. More than 70 percent of the cost of the rocket is in the first stage. The cost of recovery is small—the company needs to rent a helicopter for about four hours, at approximately $6,000 an hour, to catch the booster as it returns to Earth.
In May, the company attempted its first air capture of an Electron after it successfully boosted a few dozen small satellites. The helicopter pilot briefly captured the first stage but then released it after detecting load characteristics not previously experienced during tests. Rocket Lab still fished the booster out of the water and found it to be in the best condition of any previously recovered first stage, Beck said.
Since then, engineers have been testing various components of the rocket to determine readiness for re-flight. Had the company been able to capture the rocket and keep it out of the ocean, there is about a 50/50 chance they would have put this booster back on the launch pad. "There's a fairly robust internal debate about what we would have done if we didn't dunk it," Beck said of the first stage.
The company plans to attempt another air recovery soon but only wants to do so for daytime launches, when there is calm weather for such tests.
(Update, 4:57 pm ET: After publication, Beck was keen to clarify his comments. "The demand is there and growing steadily, but the customer readiness has lagged more than expected. In general, the rockets are often ready before the spacecraft are, which is part of the reason for our move into space systems to help streamline the spacecraft build and launch for our customers, making it faster and more cost-effective to get hardware on orbit. As for the future demand of Electron, launch cadence will be dictated by customer readiness, but we absolutely see potential for this to exceed 10 to 15 launched per year. Some single customers are seeking that many launches alone.")
