After our inaugural ranking last year, Ars Technica is again publishing a list of the most accomplished US commercial launch companies. We hope the list sparks debate, discussion, and appreciation for the challenge of operating a successful rocket company.
Please note that this is a subjective list, although hard metrics such as total launches, tonnage to orbit, success rate, and more were all important factors in the decision. And our focus remains on what each company accomplished in 2023, not on what they might do in the future. Certainly there will be more reshuffling next year.
1. SpaceX (no change)
Only one rocket company approached a mind-boggling 100 launches this year. Only one company reused more than 90 percent of the rockets it launched in 2023. Only one company launched one million kilograms of cargo into orbit. And only one company debuted the (privately developed) largest and most powerful rocket ever seen—Starship. And then launched it again just months later on a mostly successful flight.
Which feat is most impressive? Is it the unprecedented cadence? Launching nearly two rockets a week is incredible, a testament to the extremely hard work done by the SpaceX teams in California, Texas, and Florida. But getting Starship to fly twice in just seven months, after sand-blasting the launch pad on the first attempt, is equally remarkable. SpaceX is the most elite launch company in the world, and it is not close.
Here's one more statistic for you, courtesy of a reader. SpaceX, for all of its 90-plus launches this year, expended a total of six Falcon cores (four Heavy centers and two side boosters). United Launch Alliance, its one-time main competitor, expended five—in three total launches.
2. Rocket Lab (+1)
Rocket Lab has ascended to the number two position because of its execution this year. The company set a new record (10) for launches in a calendar year. Rocket Lab also had some other notable firsts, including opening its first US-based launch site at Wallops Island in Virginia, launching its first hypersonic mission, HASTE, and re-flying a Rutherford rocket engine for the first time as part of its efforts to reuse Electron first stages.
Rocket Lab also continued to work on its Neutron vehicle, although the medium-lift launcher likely won't debut until at least 2025.
It wasn't a perfect year, of course. Notably, the company's ninth launch attempt of the year—a dedicated mission for Capella Space—was lost due to an anomaly after the second stage separated. This was the company's fourth failure in 40 orbital launches. While not a terrible record, it's not a great one, either.
3. United Launch Alliance (-1)
This is the most controversial selection on the list, I'm sure. United Launch Alliance has been a dominant player in the US launch industry since its formation in 2006, and it has carried more than 150 missions safely into orbit—including some of the most critical satellites and robotic spacecraft for NASA and the Department of Defense.
But this list is not based on past achievements but on the old principle: "What have you done for me lately?" In 2023, United Launch Alliance launched just three rockets—two Atlas V boosters and a Delta IV Heavy. While these three rockets carried substantially more payload to orbit than all of Rocket Lab's Electrons, it is difficult to get past a launch cadence of once every four months.
The company would have kept its number two spot had Vulcan debuted in 2023. At the beginning of the year, the large and much-anticipated booster was due to make its first liftoff in May. However, after some issues—most notably an explosion of the Centaur V upper stage during a test this spring—the rocket will launch no earlier than January 8, 2024. Here's hoping for better things next year.
4. Firefly (+2)
It was a good year for Firefly Aerospace, which appears to have found solid footing under the ownership of AE Industrial Partners. As of January, Firefly will have existed for a full decade under various owners and management. But through all that turbulent time, a rather competent space company seems to have emerged.
In September, the Alpha rocket made its first fully successful launch, performing a rapid-response liftoff for US Space Systems Command with the "Victus Nox" mission. That payload was integrated and launched within 27 hours of receiving the launch order. It is possible that Alpha will launch a second time this year, on Wednesday, December 20, with a satellite for Lockheed Martin. And next year, the company may launch three to five times, which would be impressive.
Firefly is more than a launch company, however. It has business lines that include its Blue Ghost lander, an in-space vehicle called Elytra that could fly for the first time in 2024, and a partnership with Northrop Grumman to build larger Miranda engines for a medium-lift launch vehicle.
5. Northrop Grumman (-1)
The large government contractor launched just a single rocket in 2023—its final Antares 230+ vehicle in August. This rocket, which used both Russian and Ukrainian components, had to be abandoned after the Russian invasion of Ukraine cut off access to the launch vehicle.
Because it has no capacity to launch on its own at present, we are likely to see two launches of Northrop's Cygnus spacecraft—which delivers supplies to the International Space Station—on a Falcon 9 rocket in 2024. So, not a great look.
However, there is some hope for the future. The company is developing the Antares 330 rocket, which will have a new first stage with seven Firefly Miranda engines using kerosene and liquid oxygen. The company is also working with Firefly to develop an even more capable "medium launch vehicle" that will have the same first stage but a liquid-fueled upper stage with a single Miranda engine.
6. Blue Origin (+1)
With a return-to-flight mission on December 19 for New Shepard, Blue Origin finally launched a rocket in 2023—albeit a suborbital one. That doesn't sound like much, but in other, important ways, the company had a productive year.
Most critically, it moved forward with "addition by subtraction" when founder Jeff Bezos finally sacked underperforming chief executive Bob Smith in September. In his place, Bezos installed Dave Limp, a trusted senior executive from Amazon upon whom Bezos is counting to get Blue Origin moving faster. The company also succeeded in finally delivering flight-ready BE-4 rocket engines to United Launch Alliance for the Vulcan rocket. These should get their first big flight test in January.
Finally, there are signs of life with the long-awaited New Glenn rocket. "I'm very optimistic that the first launch of New Glenn will be in 2024," Bezos said earlier this month. This aligns with signs of hardware development at the company's factory in Florida and a completed launch site there. Will New Glenn really launch in 2024? I'm not so sure, but this probably will be the last time Blue Origin lands outside the top five on this list.
7. Relativity Space (+1)
Relativity Space launched its first rocket in March, and the Terran 1 vehicle had a nominal first stage performance. However, at 2 minutes and 48 seconds into flight—two seconds after ignition of the second-stage Aeon engine—the engine did not achieve full thrust. This ultimately led to a launch failure, but the rocket's performance was impressive for a company's first attempt.
A month after the launch, Relativity CEO Tim Ellis announced that the company was pivoting away from Terran 1 to focus on the much larger Terran R vehicle. Notably, the company also moved away from an approach to additively manufacturing the entire Terran R rocket. Ellis said the Terran R will still be a "3D printed rocket," but initial versions (at least) will use aluminum alloy straight-section barrels.
With all of this, Relativity is essentially talking about building a larger version of the Falcon 9 rocket (the advertised payload capacity is 33.5 metric tons to LEO), with a debut intended for 2026. This is a pretty hard pivot, but of late the company has revealed some successes with Aeon R engine development. The next three years will be challenging, both technically and financially. But if Relativity can show up on a launch pad with a functional Terran R, it will make a big splash in the market.
8. ABL Space (+1)
It was a close call between Relativity and ABL for the seventh spot on this list. However, the nod went to Relativity because Terran 1 flew farther than ABL's RS1 rocket during its debut flight.
The small lift RS1 rocket launched in January, but its flight ended just seconds later after the cutoff of its main engines. This caused the vehicle to crash back onto the launch pad in Alaska. An investigation revealed that a fire in the aft end of the RS1 booster burned through wiring harnesses, causing the rocket to lose power and shut off its engines. "All modern new launch vehicles from new companies have failed on their first flight," said Harry O'Hanley, CEO of ABL Space, after the flight. "Even still, the outcome hurt."
In October, O'Hanley said the company did not expect to be sidelined for all of 2023, but added that numerous upgrades have been made to the launch equipment and the first and second stages. Much of the equipment has already been shipped to Alaska for launch, and presumably we can expect a second launch attempt during the first half of 2024. Best of luck!
9. Stoke Space (NR)
Stoke Space has not launched a rocket yet, but the company is making significant strides toward development of a fully reusable small launch vehicle. In September, the company took its most prominent of these steps in "hopping" a prototype of its second stage in Washington. The test successfully demonstrated the performance of the company's oxygen-hydrogen engine, which is based on a ring of 30 thrusters; the ability to throttle this engine and its thrust vector control system; as well as the vehicle's avionics, software, and ground systems.
The company is an interesting one to watch because, through the end of 2020, it consisted of just Andy Lapsa and his co-founder, Tom Feldman. They were both propulsion engineers at Blue Origin and believed the company was not moving fast enough. In the last three years, they and their team have moved quickly to reach the point where they have an operational second stage capable of a short flight. Lapsa said the company is working toward a 2025 debut of Stoke's rocket, although he added that "there are some interesting opportunities out there to fly sooner than that."
Stoke Space has been allocated the use of Launch Complex 14 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.
10. Virgin Galactic (NR)
Virgin Galactic, after two decades of operation, finally had a golden year. The company launched its VSS Unity spaceplane above an altitude of 85 km six times, and for a time reached an impressive monthly cadence of commercial flights. Although the vehicle is suborbital, this still represents a great performance by any rocket company.
Unfortunately, the outlook for beyond this year is murky. In November, Virgin Galactic said it would reduce the frequency of VSS Unity flights going forward and stop flying the vehicle entirely by the middle of next year. After laying off 18 percent of its workforce, the company also said it was placing all of its bets on the next generation of its spacecraft: Delta-class vehicles. These spacecraft are due to begin test flights as early as 2025 and theoretically can fly twice per week, with six customers, instead of the three or four passengers Unity is able to carry.
So don't expect to see Virgin Galactic on this list next year. Or perhaps ever again. But it is important to recognize their impressive performance this year.
Dropped out
Two companies that made our power rankings in 2022 have dropped out. Of these, Virgin Orbit (ranked 5th) made the most precipitous drop. As noted last year, the company's technical achievements with the LauncherOne vehicle were impressive, but questions were swirling around the financial viability of the company. In April, the company formally entered bankruptcy, and its assets have since been sold. It is no more.
The other company was Astra (ranked 10th). This year, Astra has been focusing on its in-space propulsion business and raising enough money to keep its doors open. While the company has made some progress on development of the Rocket 4 launch vehicle, there has not been enough hardware demonstrated to engender confidence that vehicle will fly any time soon.
Also receiving consideration
There are other US companies in various states of launch vehicle development. Astra, of course, bears continuing monitoring as well as Phantom Space, Evolution Space, Exos Aerospace, Vaya Space, Deep Space Transport LLC, and other companies. But it does seem clear that we have entered a new era. The mid- to late-2010s were an era of flush funding and launch startups in the United States. The field has already been culled some, and likely will be reduced more so in the future.
As ever, I remain in awe of all the talented engineers and business people out there trying to make a go of it in the launch industry. This is a difficult and demanding business, replete with problems. I salute your hard work and hope for your success.
