Scientists at Yellowstone Volcano Observatory are set to reveal a new eruption response plan based on insights gained from an unusually simple volcanic simulation.
Yellowstone is one of the most seismically active areas in the U.S. In 2022, almost 2,500 earthquakes were located in the Yellowstone region, over 500 of which occurred during September in the same area. This activity is due to an extensive network of fault lines that lie beneath the national park, associated with a sleeping underground giant: the Yellowstone supervolcano.
Photo of the Grand Prismatic Spring at Yellowstone's Midway Geyser Basin. The National Park is one of the most seismically active areas of the U.S.Photo of the Grand Prismatic Spring at Yellowstone's Midway Geyser Basin. The National Park is one of the most seismically active areas of the U.S.RomanKhomlyak/GettyA supervolcano is one capable of producing a magnitude-eight eruption on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, discharging volcanic material for more than 240 cubic miles. The exact number of supervolcanos on Earth is still uncertain, but estimates suggest that there are around 20, including Yellowstone, Long Valley in eastern California and Lake Taupō in New Zealand.
The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the last giant eruption at Yellowstone was over 630,00 years ago, although the volcano has produced smaller eruptions since then, most recently around 70,000 years ago. In the last 2.1 million years, three of these super eruptions have taken place at Yellowstone, occurring every 600,000 to 800,000 years.
While it is unlikely that the volcano will erupt again any time soon, no one can know for sure when the sleeping giant will next wake up.
In May 2022, members of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory consortium gathered at the Mammoth Hot Springs Hotel in the National Park for their first in-person meeting since 2018. Drawing on past experiences, like the eruption of Hawaii's Kīlauea volcano in 2018, the team presented a hypothetical timeline of geological unrest at the park to discuss what actions should be taken at each step of the eruption.
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Yellowstone presents a wide range of hazards, including earthquakes and activity from hydrothermal geysers, all of which pose a threat and must be studied with different tools. Heightened activity in any given location could require an increase in data collection at these sites, which would in turn require more specialist equipment at short notice. Therefore, coordination between different groups with access to these technologies, as well as logistical support from park staff, will be necessary.
The insights gained from this tabletop exercise will be used to update the existing volcano response framework to provide a more holistic plan to respond quickly and effectively to hazardous volcanic activity.
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