Lake Mead Update: Are Water Levels Rising?

Throughout 2022, Lake Mead made national headlines due to its rapidly declining water levels. The reservoir across Nevada and Arizona is formed by the Hoover Dam on the Colorado River. It provides electricity for hundreds of thousands of people living in communities across the area. But due to the ongoing megadrought gripping the southwestern U.S., it has been hurtling towards dead pool level—which could be catastrophic. Dead pool level is at about 895 feet. At this level, water would not flow past the dam, meaning it would not be able to generate electricity. This year saw the lake's water levels the lowest they have ever been. But it was also the year they rose slightly for the first time in three years.

In July, the lake's water levels were the lowest they have been since the reservoir was first constructed in the 1930s, at 1,040 feet. While July is typically a dry time of year in the region, 2022 was a particularly low point for Lake Mead. At the same time in 2021, the water levels were at 1,067 feet, while in 2020 they were at 1,086 feet. But in August, water levels began to rise slightly following a particularly wet monsoon season. As 2022 draws to a close, the water levels have reached 1,044 feet. However, while the water levels have risen slightly, the future still looks dire for the reservoir. Andrea Gerlak, professor at the School of Geography, Development & Environment at the University of Arizona, previously told Newsweek that Lake Mead is "dangerously close" to hitting a low enough elevation for it to stop turning the turbines, and producing electricity. "But, more importantly—if and when Hoover Dam stops producing electricity—it will call into question our very assumptions for how we manage water and energy in the southwestern U.S.," said Gerlak, who is also director at the university's Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy. "It will finally be time to have those difficult discussions about what it means to collectively share and manage a resource in sustainable and equitable ways in the face of changing climate," she added.

Why Will Lake Mead Dry Up?

Weather across Nevada and Arizona was particularly hard to predict in 2022. The region is continuing to suffer amid the most severe megadrought ever seen. This stretch of drought has been drier than any other recorded in the U.S. in the past 1,200 years. Scientists are putting it mainly down to human-driven climate change. As the drought continues, people in surrounding communities are using the river's resources far more than they once did. Paired with the dry conditions, this is causing the water not to replenish as quickly. Drought is also affecting water levels that fluctuate seasonally due to winter snowpack flowing down from the Rocky Mountains. This has become less frequent during the dry conditions, and harder to predict.

Read more

• Why is the Colorado River drying up?
• Lake Mead's dire drought-stricken future foreshadowed at deadpool reservoir
• America's drought-hit lakes and rivers in sobering before and after photos

How Much Longer Will Lake Mead Last?

The exact future of Lake Mead is hard to predict. It largely depends on weather patterns in the next few years, and what policies are put in place to save the lake. It is likely that 2023 will bring more of the same for Lake Mead. A projection from the Bureau of Reclamation estimates that there is a 47 percent chance water levels could reach below 1,020 feet in 2023. In a few years however, deadpool level is looking like an increased possibility. A two-year probabilistic projection of the Colorado River system from the Bureau of Reclamation has revealed that Lake Mead could reach 992 feet by the end of July 2024. This is the Bureau's "probable minimum" level the Lake could reach within 24 months. The "probable maximum" level is projected to be 1,059.41 feet. In other words, this is the best case scenario. It's future also depends on the flows and levels of the rest of the Colorado River. Over the last century, the river's flow has dropped by 20 percent, data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows. Jennifer Pitt, Colorado River program director with the National Audubon Society, an environmental organization, previously told Newsweek: "The Colorado River has experienced an extended drought for the past 23 years, exacerbated by climate change. "Rising temperatures are drying out the region, resulting in less flow in the river. Climate change means it is not possible to predict the river's future. There is no historic precedent for today's conditions," she added.

Will Lake Mead Ever Fill Again?

Lake Mead's water levels did start to rise in August this year for the first time in three years. This is because the region was hit by the wettest monsoon season the Las Vegas Valley has seen in a decade. During this time, areas saw more than a half inch of rain in just 10 minutes, the Las Vegas Review Journal reported at the time. But if the megadrought continues, it is unlikely that the lake will naturally fill anytime soon. Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about Lake Mead? Let us know via science@newsweek.com.