Chinese Rocket Space Junk Set to Crash to Earth in One of These Two Zones

Debris from a Chinese rocket is about to plummet back to Earth with two potential "drop zones" identified near populated areas of the Philippines. The Philippines Space Agency issued a rocket debris notice on September 13, stating that the culprit was a Long March 7A (CZ-7A) rocket launched that day from the Wenchang Space Launch Center in China. The purpose of the rocket launch was to carry the Zhongxing-1E satellite—which China says will provide high-quality communication services like television and data transmission—into orbit. Normally, rockets are designed to carry out controlled descents after they release payloads into orbit, burning up in the atmosphere over a pre-ordained region of Earth such as an uninhabited patch of ocean. But the risk to humans is increasing. In July, scientists calculated that there is a 10 percent chance of one or more casualties occurring due to space debris de-orbiting and hitting the ground in the next ten years. The findings were published in the journal Nature Astronomy. To date this risk has been negligible, but increases in rocket launches from both governments and the private sector mean the chances of an accident are on the up. The risk is particularly high in southern latitudes.

After the 200-foot Long March 7A had released the satellite into orbit, debris has remained circling the Earth and it's unclear exactly when or where it will re-enter the atmosphere. The Philippine Space Agency said it had been closely monitoring the rocket debris and had determined that the space junk could fall approximately 71 kilometers (44 miles) from the Philippine municipality of Burgos or in another location approximately 52 kilometers (32 miles) from Santa Ana. "While debris from CZ-7A is unlikely to fall on land features or inhabited areas in the Philippine territory, falling debris still poses a considerable threat to ships, aircraft, fishing boats, and other vessels that will pass through the drop zones," the space agency added.

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This is not the first time that China's space activities have led to concerns over uncontrolled atmospheric re-entry of rocket debris. On July 30 the 22.5 metric-ton core stage of a Chinese Long March 5B rocket landed in Philippine waters, while debris was also found around Malaysia. No casualties were reported, but debris did end up near villages and the end result "could have been a different story" if the debris had landed a few hundred meters either way, Harvard astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell said on Twitter at the time. The issue was that the rocket's leftovers were not directed back towards Earth in a controlled way, meaning it was a matter of waiting to see when they would be slowed down enough by atmospheric drag to re-enter the atmosphere—a process that is hard to predict ahead of time. The launch of China's Long March 7A rocket on September 13 marked the fourth mission of that new-generation model, which China first launched in June, 2016.